Winter Finch Forecast 2020-2021
For those of us who feed birds throughout the year, but especially during winter, we are always curious about what birds might be appearing at our feeders. For the past 20 years, Ron Pittaway has been making predictions for us with his Winter Finch Forecast.
While working as a naturalist in Algonquin park, Ron Pittaway began to make the connection between summer berry crops and cone crops of cedars, spruces, and pines and the abundance, or scarcity, of winter finches (pine siskins, crossbills, grosbeaks, and redpolls). In years of poor food supplies in the boreal forest, there are usually major irruptions if these species into southern Ontario and the northern U.S, beyond their typical range. In 1999 he began publishing his annular Winter Finch Forecast for the upcoming winter. At first predictions were based on mainly on observations from Algonquin Park and nearby areas, but as the years passed by, he was able to get observations from many contributors from across Canada and Alaska. His forecast became the staple of birders everywhere. For further information about how he developed his predictions, read this article at All About Birds.
Ron retired this year, and passed the torch to Tyler Hoar. Tyler is not a stranger to the Rainy River District. He has conducted bird surveys here, and has led several field trips in the District for the Ontario Field Naturalists His winter forecasts will appear on the Finch Network website.
General Forecast 2020-2021
It appears to be good year for several species. Cone crops on average are poor to from Lake Superior eastward but are fair to excellent west from Lake Superior, suggesting a good year here for crossbills and siskins. White birch crops are poor to fair across the boreal forest implying a flight of redpolls south. Purple Finches and Red-breasted Nuthatches in the east are currently moving south in numbers. Common Redpolls and Evening Grosbeaks have already been reported in New Mexico and Florida, respectively (Read more about this here).
Pine Grosbeak: There should not be a flight of Pine Grosbeak south this winter. Small movements of grosbeaks wandering from areas with a poor crop in search of areas of better berry crop may provide birders with small numbers of the species outside the boreal forest.
Purple Finch: Most Purple Finches will migrate south out of Eastern Canada this winter.
Red Crossbill: Red Crossbills are currently fairly widespread in Central Ontario to southern Maritimes and northeastern states mainly feeding in areas of heavy white pine crop. Red Crossbills should shift southward some as the white pine crop is depleted.
White-winged Crossbill: The Crossbill Pendulum has swung west for the winter of 2020-21. An excellent crop of White and Black Spruce from northwestern Ontario to Alaska should contain the majority of White-winged Crossbills this winter.
Common and Hoary Redpolls: The White and Yellow Birch crop is poor to fair throughout most of the boreal and southern Canadian forests. If the redpolls move on from the Swamp Birch crop, which has been reported to be good in northeastern Ontario, expect a moderate to good flight south out of the boreal forest.
Pine Siskin: Large numbers of siskins are currently being reported in areas with excellent spruce crops in the western boreal forest. The siskins likely will remain concentrated in Western Canada with its heavy spruce cone crops for the winter.
Evening Grosbeak: Evening Grosbeak appear to be on the move this winter. Its breeding population appears to be increasing in Eastern Canada westward to Manitoba due to increasing outbreaks of spruce budworm with large severe outbreaks in eastern Quebec.
For the complete forecast go to the Finch Network website.
Project Feeder Watch
An enjoyable winter activity is counting birds in your yard and contributing those sightings to Project FeederWatch, which is an important way for us to contribute to a continental data-set of bird abundance and distribution. This provides crucial information for scientists studying population trends.
This year the season runs from November 14 through April 9. No special skills are required, just a willingness to spend two days each week, for as long as you wish, from a few minutes to all day, watching your feeders. in fact, you don’t even need to put up feeders – just watch the birds in your yard for a few minutes. All the information you possibly would need and how to join can be found at Project FeederWatch.
In Canada Project FeederWatch is organized by Birds Canada. To participate a tax-deductible donation of any amount to Birds Canada is required. If you give $50 or more, you will also receive the BirdWatch Canada magazine. Contributions cover the cost of materials, staff support, data analysis, and so on.
Project FeederWatch is a joint research and education project of Birds Canada and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology.