So far, this winter has been a poor year for viewing finches and grosbeaks at the feeders.  Only in the last few days of February have I begun to see Pine Grosbeak, Pine Siskins, and Purple Finches (and only two or three appearing infrequently every few days).  There haven’t been any Evening Grosbeaks, Common and Hoary Redpolls at all.  Oddly though, I have had large flocks of American Goldfinch (often over 60 at a time) all winter, and this is the first time in winter that I’ve even had goldfinches. 

This wasn’t unexpected, however.  Every year Ron Pittaway develops a winter finch forecast for Ontario and surrounding provinces and states.  He is usually spot on, and this year has been no exception.  Here is his forecast for this winter, which was issued way back in September (much to the dismay of birders everywhere!):

GENERAL FORECAST: This is not an irruption (flight) year for winter finches in the East. Most winter finches will stay in the north. There are abundant spruce cone crops across the boreal forest in Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland. Most conifers (except pines), birches and other seed crops are good to excellent in much of the Northeast.  For the details on each finch species, see individual forecasts below, Three irruptive non-finch passerines are also discussed. The forecast applies mainly to Ontario and nearby provinces and states.

PINE GROSBEAK:  Most Pine Grosbeaks will stay close to the breeding grounds this winter because the mountain-ash berry crop is excellent in the north. The abundant cone crop and a large seed crop on black ash will provide additional food to hold grosbeaks in the north. A few Pine Grosbeaks may drift south to Algonquin Park where they are seen most winters.

PURPLE FINCH: Most Purple Finches usually migrate south of Ontario in the fall, but this winter many will remain in the province where tree seed crops are excellent. At feeders they prefer black oil sunflower seeds.

RED CROSSBILL:  Red Crossbills are currently widespread in the East. Expect to see them where there are large cone crops. Red Crossbills comprise at least 10 “types” in North America. The types are usually impossible to identify without recordings of their flight calls. Recordings can be made with an iPhone and identified to type. Matt Young (may6 at cornell.edu) of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology will identify types if you email him your recordings or upload them to an eBird checklist. Recordings uploaded to eBird checklists are deposited in the Macaulay Library. Matt reports that Type 10 is the most common type now in the Northeast, but there are also some Type 3 from the West and a few Type 1 and 2. See Matt Young’s guide to Red Crossbill call types in link #4 below.

WHTE-WINGED CROSSBILL: This crossbill is currently widespread and locally common in Ontario and Quebec where spruce cone crops are excellent to bumper.  It feeds on native conifers with small cones such as white, red and black spruces and hemlock.

(Note: The two crossbill species, although occasionally present in the Rainy River District, are never very abundant).

COMMON REDPOLL: These redpolls will probably stay in the north this winter because seed crops on birches, alders and spruce are excellent this year. A winter trip to northern Ontario should yield redpolls.

HOARY REDPOLL: Hoaries are not expected in the south this winter because it is not a redpoll irruption year. A road trip to northern Ontario is recommended to see Hoary Redpolls. Watch for them in flocks of Common Redpolls.

PINE SISKIN: Many siskins should winter in central and northern Ontario where cones crops are excellent to bumper on white spruce. Siskins relish nyger seeds in silo feeders.

EVENING GROSBEAK: Most Evening Grosbeaks should winter in the north because conifer and deciduous seed crops such as black ash are generally excellent to bumper. However, we may experience an echo flight after the considerable southward movement last winter.  At feeders it prefers black oil sunflower seeds. The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in 2016 listed the Evening Grosbeak as a species of Special Concern due to strong population declines in central and eastern Canada.

(Note: Large numbers of Evening Grosbeak were present for some time this winter at Emo on River at feeders on River  Road.  They were also seen at one feeder during the Christmas Bird Count).

THREE IRRUPTIVE NON-FINCH PASSERINES: Movements of these three passerines are often linked to movements of boreal finches.

BLUE JAY: This jay moves south in varying numbers every fall. Expect a small to moderate flight along the north shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie because the red oak acorn, beechnut, hazelnut and soft mast crops are very good to excellent in Ontario. Good numbers of Blue Jays should visit feeders this winter in Ontario.

(Note: This seemed to be the case here this winter.  I’ve had 12 to 16 Blue Jays all winter, and others have reported larger than usual numbers).

RED-BREASTED NUTHATCH: Boreal populations of the Red-breasted Nuthatch will not migrate south this fall. The excellent spruce and fir cone crops will hold Red-breasted Nuthatches on the breeding grounds this winter.

BOHEMIAN WAXWING: The excellent native mountain-ash berry crop across the boreal forest should keep most Bohemians Waxwings in the north this winter. Some, however, usually wander south into settled areas where they are attracted to European mountain-ash berries, ornamental crabapples and buckthorn berries.

Click to view Ron Pittaway’s complete Winter Finch Forecast 2019-2020.

For a fascinating account about Ron Pittaway and how he develops his winter forecast, read this article at the Cornell Lab All About Birds website.